Shared Waters, Shared Futures: Collaborative Pathways to Sustainability

This experience note explores the development and application of CoSMoS (Collaborative Systems Mapping of Pathways to Sustainability), a participatory tool designed to address complex sustainability challenges in transboundary water systems. Initially developed under the “Integrated Solutions for Water, Energy, and Land (ISWEL) project (GEF ID 6993), it has been applied in the Zambezi and Indus Transboundary River Basins and the Guarani Transboundary Aquifer, supporting diagnostic assessments, strategic planning, and scenario exploration.

By fostering cross-sectoral and cross-border collaboration, CoSMoS enables stakeholders to co-create actionable strategies, address competing demands, and build resilience to climate and socio-economic pressures. It aligns with frameworks like the GEF’s TDA/SAP, contributing to improved governance and integrated water management. This note highlights lessons learned and insights for replicating CoSMoS.

This experience note reflects on the development and testing of a participatory tool called CoSMoS (Collaborative Design of Pathways to Sustainability). CoSMoS is a flexible, systems-mapping-based methodology designed to address complex sustainability challenges in transboundary water settings. Developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the Centre for Systems Solutions (CRS), CoSMoS facilitates collaborative scenario planning and decision-making processes.

CoSMoS was initially created under the Integrated Solutions for Water, Energy, and Land (ISWEL) project (GEF ID 6993), funded by the Global Environment Facility (GEF). It was later adapted for use in the "Implementation of the Guarani Aquifer Strategic Action Program: Enabling Regional Actions" project (GEF ID 10139) and is planned for application in the “Groundwater for Advancing Resilience in Africa” project (GEF ID 10970), where it will be used to support the integration of groundwater into river basin planning in Uganda.

The tool has been instrumental in supporting dialogues in two transboundary river basins facing significant sustainability challenges: the Indus Basin in Asia and the Zambezi Basin in Africa. It has also been applied to transboundary aquifers, such as the Guarani Aquifer in South America. Although the challenges in these contexts are highly specific, common themes include the need to foster cross-border cooperation, address competing resource demands, and build resilience to climate change and global socio-economic pressures.

CoSMoS was designed to support the GEF’s Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis/Strategic Action Programme (TDA/SAP) methodology. It provides a participatory framework for jointly identifying current challenges, setting future priorities, assessing trade-offs, and co-developing actionable strategies that align with the TDA/SAP goals of fostering regional cooperation and integrated water resource management (IWRM).

CoSMoS has been applied to address the following transboundary water issues: 

• Fragmented governance: Lack of coordinated management across borders leading to inefficient water use, disputes, and difficulty in implementing integrated policies.
• Competing sectoral demands: Agriculture, energy, urban supply, and ecosystems rely on shared water resources, creating trade-offs and tensions.
• Hydrological variability and climate change: Increasingly unpredictable water availability, prolonged droughts, and extreme floods exacerbate resource scarcity and planning challenges.
• Unequal water distribution: Some regions within transboundary basins have abundant resources, while others face chronic shortages, amplifying socio-economic disparities.
• Upstream-downstream conflicts: Large-scale hydropower development and irrigation projects often reduce water availability for downstream users, straining regional cooperation.
• Data and knowledge gaps: Limited access to shared hydrological and socio-economic data hinders informed decision-making and long-term sustainability.
• Groundwater over-extraction and weak governance: Transboundary aquifers, such as the Guarani, face increasing pressure due to unregulated use and insufficient institutional frameworks.

What is CoSMoS?

CoSMoS is a participatory planning tool designed to help stakeholders develop a shared understanding of complex sustainability challenges and identify pathways to address them. By integrating systems mapping with participatory approaches, the CoSMoS process enables participants to collectively frame complex challenges and design responses and forward-looking strategies. These strategies are both robust—considering global drivers such as climate change—and context-specific, incorporating options and solutions tailored to the unique needs of each setting. CoSMoS is particularly effective in transboundary water contexts, where resource interdependencies and competing demands require collaboration across sectors and borders.

Key principles underpinning CoSMoS tool and process are:
 

Participatory Problem Framing: It provides a structured approach to clearly define system boundaries and focus areas, ensuring that all stakeholders build a shared understanding of the challenges at hand.
Complexity: Through systems mapping, CoSMoS visualizes interconnections between system elements, including trade-offs and feedback loops among resources (water, energy, agriculture, ecosystems), as well as between drivers and pressures. This helps participants understand and frame the dynamic, interconnected nature of sustainability challenges.
Inclusivity: By engaging a diverse range of participants—from technical experts to local communities—CoSMoS integrates multiple perspectives, ensuring that solutions are inclusive and representative.
Creativity: The process encourages innovative thinking by combining scientific tools, role-playing, and scenario exploration to uncover unconventional solutions to complex problems.
Consensus: CoSMoS fosters dialogue and collaboration, creating a space where stakeholders can reach agreement on shared goals and actionable pathways.
Commitment to Action: CoSMoS culminates in actionable pathways with clear milestones and responsibilities, ensuring that solutions are practical, well-supported, and ready for implementation.

When is it useful?

CoSMoS is particularly useful to:

• conducting diagnostic assessments: addressing complex sustainability challenges in water systems that require diverse knowledge and expertise across sectors, actors, and countries
• supporting strategic planning: assisting decision-makers in designing sustainability pathways that are practical and actionable
• exploring alternative scenarios: visualizing how trends and uncertainties, such as climate change, may impact sustainability and identifying what is needed to enhance the robustness of proposed pathways
• fostering cooperation in transboundary water settings: facilitating inclusive dialogues among governments, NGOs, local communities, and technical experts to co-design collaborative and equitable solutions

Figure 1 describes the CoSMoS conceptual framework. A particularly innovative aspect of this approach, highly relevant for strategic and action planning, is its emphasis on identifying and distinguishing between different spheres of power and uncertainty. When implementing the CoSMoS approach, three main spheres need to be considered and distinguished. 

• Sphere of Control: Areas where stakeholders have direct influence and decision-making power, enabling immediate action.
• Area of Influence: Factors where stakeholders can exert partial influence through collaboration or partnerships, requiring coordination with others.
• Sphere of Uncertainty: External drivers beyond stakeholders’ control, such as climate change or economic shifts, requiring strategies to remain adaptable and robust.

Figure 1. CoSMoS conceptual framework. Source: Campos et al (2023)

Steps 

The CoSMoS process is organized into specific participatory steps that guide stakeholders from problem identification to actionable solutions (see Figure 1). CoSMoS process can be implemented through in-person workshops or online, using collaborative boards like MIRO, MURAL, JAMBOARD, etc. The experience gathered so far, shows that in-person formats result in richer and more in-depth exchange and mutual learning among stakeholders. 

Step 1: Defining system boundaries and problem framing

In the first step, the focus area or “decision unit” (e.g., a region, basin, or aquifer) is defined. Stakeholders are mapped using tools like the snowball technique to ensure inclusivity. Key research questions are jointly framed, and a preliminary contextual analysis is conducted through desktop reviews to provide a foundation for further discussions.

Step 2: Understanding the current situation

A system mapping exercise is carried out to visualize the key elements of the transboundary system, including natural resources, infrastructure, socio-economic activities, and ongoing risks or pressures. This step provides stakeholders with a shared understanding of the system's vulnerabilities, interconnections, and challenges. 

Step 3: Joint exploration of a “business-as-usual” scenario

Participants collaboratively envision how the transboundary system might evolve if current trends persist, a so-called “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario. Supporting information, such as climate change projections and sectoral or country development plans, are introduced to reflect external (connected to the sphere of uncertainty) and internal drivers of change (connected to the sphere of influence and control, see Figure1).

Step 4: Creating a sustainable future vision

Stakeholders co-design a shared vision(s) of a sustainable future, identifying key goals required within the system and potential targets and indicators. This visioning exercise encourages creative thinking while maintaining realistic expectations and setting a clear and aspirational direction for action.

Step 5: Pathway development

Using scenario backcasting techniques, participants work together to develop pathways (combinations of strategies and actions) that lead toward the agreed sustainable future vision. Actions and milestones are organized along a timeline, and stakeholders required to support or directly in charge of implementation are identified. 

Step 6: Prioritization of actions

Stakeholders prioritize the identified strategies and actions using participatory methods such as voting or consensus-building exercises. This process helps identify key actions, responsible actors, resource requirements, and implementation timelines.

Step 7: Debriefing and reflection

The final step involves collective reflection on the pathways developed and the overall process. Stakeholders assess lessons learned, evaluate outcomes, and identify areas for refinement to ensure the pathways are actionable, robust, and supported by all participants.

Challenges

The Zambezi Basin, one of Africa’s largest river systems, faces uneven water availability despite being water-rich overall. Middle and lower sub-basins experience significant water stress, driven by rising demands and prolonged dry seasons exacerbated by climate variability.  Hydropower expansion and management and ongoing irrigation projects are the main drivers straining water resources downstream, intensifying competition among sectors and countries. Water demands are projected to increase sharply as countries aim to harness the basin’s vast hydropower potential for electricity exports and expand irrigated agriculture. Existing siloed planning approaches across countries and sectors impede effective management. Against this background, the Zambezi Watercourse Commission (ZAMCOM) has taken steps to foster cooperation and strengthen coordination. These efforts support, among other activities, the development of the Zambezi Basin Strategic Development Plan to ensure a well coordinated and sustainable water resources development agenda, also taking into account the growing risks posed by climate change.

Key findings

The system mapping exercise revealed that under the “Business-As-Usual” (BAU) scenario, rising demands for water, driven by large-scale hydropower projects and irrigation expansion, are expected to exacerbate existing pressures on the basin’s resources. Seasonal variability, marked by shorter wet seasons and prolonged dry periods, is likely to intensify water scarcity in the middle and lower sub-basins. This dynamic will aggravate competition among sectors, limit water availability for economic activities, and further strain relations between riparian countries. 

In contrast, stakeholders from across the basin highlighted the potential for cooperation and strategic interventions to address these challenges while supporting country development goals. Groundwater was identified as a critical resource for mitigating water stress during dry periods. Its strategic use would facilitate the expansion of irrigation while reallocating surface water for hydropower generation and maintaining environmental flows. Efficiency measures, such as modernizing irrigation systems and promoting crop diversification, were prioritized to optimize water use and improve agricultural productivity. Such measures, along with stronger cooperation across countries, could allow the basin to be on the sustainability track and still pursue its development agenda. 

Impact

The participatory system mapping and pathways exercise profoundly impacted the Zambezi Basin’s challenges. By fostering collaboration among stakeholders from diverse sectors and countries, the process built a shared understanding of the basin’s interconnected water, energy, and land dynamics. This collaborative effort increased awareness of the risks posed by a business-as-usual approach, including intensified resource competition, regional inequalities, and exacerbated water stress driven by hydropower and irrigation demands.

The process facilitated the development of actionable sustainability pathways, emphasizing groundwater use to mitigate water stress, irrigation efficiency to enhance agricultural productivity, and protecting environmental flows to balance competing demands. These strategies informed policy efforts, strengthening ZAMCOM’s role in transboundary cooperation and supporting the Zambezi Basin Strategic Development Plan.

Indus Transboundary River Basin

Challenges

The Indus River Basin faces significant challenges due to rising water demands and changing climate conditions, which threaten the economy and livelihoods of basin inhabitants. These issues have intensified political tensions between India and Pakistan, as the current circumstances and demands differ markedly from allocation rules established under the Indus Waters Treaty's signing back in 1960.

Key findings

The CoSMoS approach played a vital role in facilitating structured dialogues within the basin, around both the implications of not acting and continuing BAU versus a transformative approach that would lead to a more sustainable and peaceful future. Under the BAU scenario, inefficient irrigation, surface water over-extraction, and climate change impacts, including glacier melt and monsoonal shifts, will continue threatening water security, agriculture, and hydropower in the Indus Basin. Rising water demands and outdated frameworks under the Indus Waters Treaty further heightened tensions between India and Pakistan, complicating transboundary management. In response, CoSMos processes supported stakeholders in designing alternative development pathways aligned with the sustainable development goals. Key strategies included adopting modern irrigation techniques to promote water use efficiency and boost agricultural productivity, and integrating renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, to reduce dependence on hydropower. Climate adaptation measures focused on building resilient infrastructure and fostering regional cooperation for climate data sharing. Strengthening transboundary governance mechanisms was stressed as essential for equitable water distribution and conflict prevention. Additionally, empowering local communities through capacity-building initiatives ensured their involvement in implementing sustainable practices.

Impact

The participatory process in the Indus Basin fostered increased awareness of the severe consequences of inaction, particularly regarding water scarcity and its socio-economic impacts. It helped build trust across borders, especially between Indian and Pakistani stakeholders, despite high political tensions. From a policy perspective, it emphasized the importance of embedding a nexus approach in agricultural and energy planning to address the interconnected demands of these water-intensive sectors. The process also highlighted the value of regional cooperation, sustainable resource management practices, and adaptive governance mechanisms to ensure resilience in the face of growing climate variability and competing water demands.

Guarani Transboundary Aquifer 

Challenges

The Guarani Aquifer faces significant pressures that jeopardize its sustainability. While being one of the largest groundwater reservoirs in the world, punctual over-extraction and pollution are growing threats, and uneven access to resources among Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay creates further disparities. Climate change exacerbates these issues by altering recharge patterns and reducing overall water availability, increasing the competition for this critical resource. Moreover, weak governance structures and a lack of integrated data hinder effective management. The absence of strong coordination mechanisms between the riparian countries complicates efforts to ensure equitable use and long-term sustainability of the aquifer.

Key findings

The application of CoSMoS brought valuable insights into addressing the aquifer’s challenges. A central finding was the urgent need to strengthen governance through the institutionalization of the Guarani Aquifer Agreement. Establishing technical coordination bodies was identified as a critical step toward overseeing effective management. Stakeholders recognized the importance of creating a shared database that integrates information on groundwater and surface water interactions, enabling informed and collaborative decision-making. Protecting recharge areas and promoting sustainable land-use practices, such as reducing deforestation and improving agricultural water efficiency, emerged as vital strategies for safeguarding the aquifer. Additionally, incorporating a water-energy-food-environment nexus approach was deemed essential for addressing cross-sectoral impacts and ensuring the aquifer's sustainability.

Impact

The participatory process facilitated by CoSMoS had a very positive impact on regional collaboration and dialogue. By fostering trust among the technical committees of the four countries, the process created a shared vision for the sustainable use of the Guarani Aquifer. Stakeholders identified actionable pathways to support socio-economic development while preserving the aquifer’s ecological functions. The process catalyzed institutional strengthening, emphasizing the operationalization of the Guarani Agreement and the integration of scientific and technical expertise into governance structures. These efforts aim to ensure the aquifer's resilience to climate change and its capacity to meet the growing demands of the region. By addressing both immediate pressures and long-term risks, the CoSMoS process has laid the foundation for a more coordinated and sustainable approach to managing this vital resource.

The application of CoSMoS in transboundary water systems offers valuable lessons for replicating the approach in other contexts. Its participatory and systems-thinking methodology has proven effective in addressing complex sustainability challenges, but successful implementation requires careful consideration of contextual factors and stakeholder dynamics.

One key lesson is the importance of inclusive stakeholder engagement. CoSMoS fosters collaboration by involving diverse actors, including government agencies, technical experts, local communities, and private sector representatives. This diversity ensures that dialogues are well-rounded and reflective of varying priorities, experiences and values. In replication, attention must be given to mapping and engaging stakeholders early in the process to build trust, ensure representation, and encourage ownership of outcomes.

Another critical aspect is the tool’s adaptability to context. CoSMoS has demonstrated its flexibility in addressing challenges across basins with different resource constraints, governance structures, and socio-political contexts. When replicating, practitioners should tailor the approach to the specific physical, social, and institutional dynamics of the target region. This includes defining system boundaries clearly, adapting the system tool, including the maps and cards, and even the process to accommodate cultural and political nuances, and aligning with existing governance frameworks.

The process also underscores the value of capacity building. Many stakeholders may be unfamiliar with systems mapping or scenario-building techniques. Investing in training workshops ensures that participants can effectively contribute to the process and apply the insights generated in their decision-making. Capacity building also helps sustain the outcomes beyond the initial application.

Data availability and integration is another key consideration. CoSMoS relies on accurate and accessible data for system mapping and scenario modeling. In data-scarce contexts, replicators may need to prioritize data-sharing agreements or leverage innovative methods to fill gaps.

Finally, achieving impact requires a clear link to policy frameworks. The success of CoSMoS in existing contexts has been tied to its ability to inform strategic action plans and foster institutional collaboration. In new applications, practitioners should align outputs with relevant policy objectives and governance structures to ensure actionable and impactful results.

By considering these factors, CoSMoS can be effectively replicated to address complex, interconnected challenges in diverse transboundary and regional contexts, fostering sustainability and collaboration across sectors and borders.

CoSMoS has proven to be an effective participatory approach for tackling complex sustainability challenges in transboundary settings. By combining systems thinking with scenario planning techniques and user-friendly tools such as simple maps and cards, it enables diverse stakeholders to work together to analyze trade-offs, develop shared visions, and create practical, evidence-based strategies.

One of CoSMoS’s greatest strengths lies in its ability to foster collaboration across borders and sectors. In regions like the Zambezi and Indus Basins and the Guarani Aquifer, it has helped explore the drivers underpinning much of the existing political tensions, understand how to manage competing demands, and incorporate the climate dimension into the co-development of adaptation strategies. The process builds trust among stakeholders, empowers local actors, and helps align development goals across countries and sectors.

CoSMoS is also valuable for bridging gaps in governance by linking its outputs to existing policy frameworks. For example, it has informed the development of plans such as the Zambezi Basin Strategic Development Plan and provided insights on how to operationalize the Guarani Aquifer Agreement. These outcomes ensure that the pathways and knowledge developed are actionable and relevant to regional priorities. Moreover, its emphasis on the interconnections between water, energy, land, and environmental systems (the nexus approach) enhances cross-sectoral planning and cooperation.

CoSMoS also complements the TDA/SAP methodology used in GEF International Waters projects. By offering a structured participatory framework, CoSMos process supports the identification of priority issues (critical input for TDA) and the co-creation of actionable pathways (linked to the SAP). Its integration of cross-sectoral insights ensures that strategies developed are comprehensive and directly aligned with the TDA/SAP goals of fostering regional cooperation and sustainable resource management.

The success of applying CoSMoS in diverse contexts highlights its potential as a replicable tool for fostering collaboration and advancing sustainable development in transboundary water systems.

References

Campo, P., Willaarts, B., Magnuszewski, P., Giger, T., Ksiazczak, A.M., Brychczynski, H., & Kułakowska, M. (2023). Collaborative Design of Pathways to Sustainability. Guidebook for designing and running in-person workshops. Zenodo 10.5281/zenodo.8345513.

ISWEL project website: www.iswel.org

Palazzo, A., Kahil, T., Willaarts, B., Burek, P. , van Dijk, M., Tang, T., Magnuszewski, P., Havlík, P., Langan, S., & Wada, Y. (2024). Assessing sustainable development pathways for water, food, and energy security in a transboundary river basin. Environmental Development 51 e101030. 10.1016/j.envdev.2024.101030. 

Vinca, A. , Parkinson, S. , Riahi, K. , Byers, E. , Siddiqi, A., Muhammad, A., Ilyas, A., Yogeswaran, N., Willaarts, B. , Magnuszewski, P., Awais, M. , Rowe, A., & Djilali, N. (2021). Transboundary cooperation a potential route to sustainable development in the Indus basin. Nature Sustainability 4 331-339. 10.1038/s41893-020-00654-7.

Willaarts, B., Vinca, A., Parkinson, S., Riahi, K., Byers, E., & Heyl, A. (2021). Cooperation and joint investments are key to sustainable development in the Indus basin. IIASA Policy Brief. Laxenburg, Austria: PB-28

Willaarts, B., Palazzo, A., Kahil, T., Tang, T. , & Heyl, A. (2021). Sustainable development pathways to water, food, and energy security in the Zambezi basin. IIASA Policy Brief. Laxenburg, Austria: PB-27